Monday, Dec. 08, 2008

Braves on the right track with Peavy

If the Atlanta Braves can get Jake Peavy for Yunel Escobar and Gorkys Hernandez - which is how the Braves presently envision a fair deal - I'm nominating Frank Wren for 2009 Executive of the Year before 2009 even begins.

If I were Wren and the Braves still have to add either Jo-Jo Reyes or Charlie Morton to their package, I'd still sprint to the podium and announce the deal before the San Diego Padres have any chance to reconsider.

In the end, this deal that could bring a certifiable No. 1 starter to the Braves rotation is not so much about which prospects the Braves surrender. It's about which prospects they keep.

Give Wren and the Atlanta brain trust credit: They've apparently drawn a line in the sand as a silent insistence that they will not repeat the horrific hari-kari of the Mark Teixeira deal with the Texas Rangers at the trading deadline in 2007, when they shipped the minor league system's best and the brightest prospects to the Rangers for a guy they merely rented for a year and a half.

The Padres opened matters by asking for Tommy Hanson, the former Pelican who dominated the Carolina League for two months last season before moving on up the ladder to Mississippi.

The Braves said no and have stuck to their position. They've also said no on left-handers Jeff Locke and Cole Rohrbough. They've resisted all entreaties for position prospects Tyler Flowers, Jason Heyward and Freddie Freeman.

This is good. This is learning from a mistake.

This is also good for those of us on the Grand Strand who enjoy meandering over to the ballpark every now and then to watch a little ball and see what the Braves have flowing through their talent pipeline.

Heyward and Freeman, two guys who project to be middle-of-the-order thumpers in the big leagues, should start 2009 here and probably will play the whole season at this level barring something extraordinary.

Rohrbough was 2-2, with a 3.41 ERA in five starts here at the end of last season and don't be dissuaded by Locke's numbers last season at lower Class-A Rome (5-12, 4.06). He too is considered one of the organization's top pitching prospects.

Hernandez showcased his considerable physical skills last season with the Pelicans when he hit .264 with 20 stolen bases and played an oft-brilliant center field.

But he hasn't yet grasped that his game should be built around his speed, at least until he begins to drive the ball with more consistency. His swing is a bit long and he hits far too many balls in the air for someone who runs the way he does.

But he has the chance to be a special player, particularly after he matures physically and comes to understand what his gifts may allow him to do at the top of the order offensively, and patrolling the big pasture of center field defensively.

But if that's the prospect price the Braves have to pay to get a front-of-the-rotation starter like Peavy, then that's the price - particularly since the Braves still have Jordan Schafer to play center field down the road.

The problem with the deal is that there's no one waiting in the Atlanta wings to play shortstop on a daily basis in the big leagues.

Elvis Andrus would have been that guy, but he now plays for the Rangers. Tony Pena Jr. is with the Royals. Diory Hernandez has given no indication he's ready and internal opinion is split on whether Brent Lillibridge could handle the gig on a full-time basis.

So, the Braves might create a hole in their middle infield by filling the void at the front of their rotation. That could force them into the free agent market for a shortstop, even if it's a stop-gap like Orlando Cabrera.

But that's still a heck of a lot cheaper than going into the market for a front-line starter. Guys like Peavy don't come available all that often. If the Braves can get him in a deal that centers around Escobar and Gorkys, they really should leap at it. And it remains a good deal even if they have to add a mid-level pitching prospect like Reyes or Morton.